FIIs Reverse Trend with ₹3,000 Cr Inflow | IMF Raises India Growth Forecast to 6.6% | Key Events to Watch Next Week
Indian equity markets scaled new heights ahead of Diwali with Nifty crossing 25,700 and Sensex settling around 83,952. FIIs reversed their selling trend with over ₹3,000 crore inflow, boosting market sentiment.
Analysis Period: October 13-17, 2025 | Market Sentiment: Bullish
Festive Boost: Diwali optimism driving consumer stocks with gold hitting record ₹1,34,800/10g ahead of Dhanteras demand.
India-US trade talks, festive demand analysis, and ongoing IPO boom to dominate market movements. Monitor FII flows and forex reserves for directional cues.
India's major indices advanced ahead of the festive season. The Nifty 50 crossed ~25,700 and the BSE Sensex settled around 83,952 after gaining ~484 points on 17 October.
Over the first seven trading days of October 2025, FIIs injected over ₹3,000 crore into Indian equities, reversing earlier selling trends.
As of 10 October, India's foreign exchange reserves dropped by ~US$2.18 billion to ~US$697.78 billion. At the same time, the Reserve Bank of India's gold reserves crossed US$100 billion, with gold's share ~14.7% (the highest since the 1990s).
The corporate bond market in India is seeing renewed issuance — firms are tapping bonds (~₹10^11 rupees scale) — amid investor expectations of interest-rate cuts by the RBI.
The Indian government is reportedly considering easing certain anti-dumping duties and import restrictions on Chinese raw materials (for sectors such as leather, engineering) to support domestic industry.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised India's 2025-26 growth estimate upward to 6.6% despite global trade headwinds, though it sees growth moderating in 2026-27.
The Government of Delhi is preparing a draft policy (by December) to position Delhi as a hub for animation, visual effects, comics & gaming (AVGC).
India's primary market is on a boom: ~US$5 billion worth of IPOs expected in October alone, following earlier sluggishness. Sectors include fintech, manufacturing, renewables.
SEBI has issued a circular (mid-October) requiring listed entities to provide more detailed disclosures for RPTs: justification of "best interests", external valuation reports, percentage of counterparty turnover, etc. Smaller RPTs (<1% of turnover or <₹10 crore) are exempt.
According to a report, India's Current Account Deficit (CAD) for FY26 is likely to remain around 1.2–1.5% of GDP. Progress in trade talks with the U.S. will be crucial.
While the IMF recently raised India's growth forecast to 6.6% for FY26, markets will watch for any commentary or deeper analysis that further refines growth, inflation or external-risk assumptions.
Trade negotiations between India and the U.S. are scheduled for this week, with discussions around tariffs, energy imports and exports.
With the upcoming festival season (Diwali/Dhanteras) underway and gold hitting record levels (~₹1,34,800/10g) ahead of demand, consumer-facing stocks (retail, gold & jewellery, electronics) will be under focus.
Although many large listings are later, watch for announcements or filings next week: an IPO pipeline remains strong.
While a full list isn't yet specific for next week, investors should monitor the event calendars on sites such as National Stock Exchange of India (NSE) and Moneycontrol for any major companies announcing Q2 or interim results.
Keep an eye on foreign-institutional investor (FII) flow updates, forex reserve changes, and current-account/deficit signals. Earlier this week forex reserves dropped by ~US$2.18 billion.
This is not investment advice. The information presented in this blog post is for educational and informational purposes only. It should not be construed as investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The stock market is subject to risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Readers are strongly advised to conduct their own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Sources: Business Standard, The Economic Times, Reuters, Financial Times, The Times of India, NSE India
Market Outlook & Strategy
Short-term View (1-2 weeks):
The market sentiment remains positive with Diwali festivities providing seasonal boost. Key resistance for Nifty is at 25,800-26,000 levels while support is at 25,400. FII flows and global cues will be crucial determinants.
Medium-term View (1-3 months):
With IMF upgrading growth forecast and corporate earnings season underway, the underlying trend remains bullish. However, valuations are getting stretched in several segments, warranting selective approach.
Key Levels to Watch: